Alexander Sammon
Updated on: October 12, 2024 10:21 pm GMT
As tensions escalate in the South China Sea, the Philippines is bracing for a complex confrontation with China. Incidents involving aggressive Chinese maritime activities around contested regions are raising alarms not only in Manila but across the globe. With territorial claims clashing, many wonder how far Beijing will go to assert its dominance and how the Philippines can protect its rights in these vital waters.
Beijing’s Approach to Maritime Claims
In recent years, China has adopted a so-called “salami slice” strategy, gradually extending its control over the South China Sea through incremental steps. This approach has been successful, allowing China to fortify its position without provoking an overwhelming international backlash. However, recent developments suggest a new chapter in China’s assertiveness, particularly with the introduction of a new administrative enforcement law.
- Recent Maritime Activity: Chinese vessels have increased their presence around the Second Thomas Shoal, which is deeply embedded in the Philippines’ Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). In 2021, fewer than five Chinese ships typically monitored Philippine resupply missions there; by late 2023, that number peaked at nearly 50.
- Expansion to Sabina Shoal: China’s aggressive tactics have also spread to the Sabina Shoal, located just 86 nautical miles from the Philippines’ Palawan Island, raising concerns about the escalating threats to Philippine sovereignty.
This shift appears to correlate with China enacting the “Provisions on Administrative Enforcement Procedures for Coast Guard Agencies 2024,” commonly referred to as CCG Order #3. This law grants Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) commanders the authority to detain foreign vessels and personnel for extended periods, complicating the already fraught maritime environment.
The Lawfare Strategy
China has long used aspects of international law to cement its claims, a strategy known as “lawfare.” By navigating ambiguities within legal frameworks, it has slowed the response from democracies caught between civilian legal systems and military functions. As the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Daily described its maritime militia, they can easily shift identities based on the situation, which serves to confuse and intimidate other nations.
- Ambiguity Exploited: The definition of “Chinese jurisdiction” remains vague, likely grounded in the controversial Nine-Dash Line, which the Permanent Court of Arbitration deemed illegal in 2016. This lack of clarity allows China to act unilaterally, disregarding previous agreements.
China’s actions exemplify a tactical evolution where legal frameworks are utilized to intimidate and challenge the presence of other nations in the region, complicating international diplomatic efforts.
Recent Escalations and Incidents
The frequency and intensity of China’s aggressive actions have increased notably in recent months:
- Violent Clashes: In February 2023, Chinese forces resorted to military-grade lasers, while August saw the use of lasers and water cannons against Philippine vessels. Incidents have often left Filipino servicemen injured, with a notable clash on June 17 injuring eight individuals.
- Sabina Shoal Incidents: A recent series of conflicts around Sabina Shoal reflects China’s relentless pursuit to reinforce its territorial claims. Following an altercation on August 22, China accused the Philippines of deliberately colliding with its ships in disputed waters.
The narrative from China often frames its maritime harassment as legal enforcement, further muddling the lines between military action and civilian enforcement.
International Implications and Responses
In light of these events, the international community is facing a dilemma on how to respond. The implications of China’s assertive tactics are significant, not just for the Philippines but also for regional stability and global trade routes.
- Diplomatic Efforts: The Philippines has ramped up diplomatic discussions with China, but as President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. finds, these talks often come amid hostile incidents. Manila is exploring alliances and seeking support from the United States, invoking mutual defense commitments which promise to complicate any future confrontations.
As the situation continues to evolve, maritime security remains paramount, not just for the Philippines but also for countries reliant on these vital trade routes. The potential for conflict looms large, and there is mounting pressure for a coordinated international response.
Conclusion: Navigating a Complex Future
China’s recent maneuvers in the South China Sea signal a potentially dangerous shift in regional dynamics. With rising tensions and an increasing number of aggressive encounters, the Philippines finds itself on a precarious path. As the international community watches closely, the coming months will be crucial in determining whether diplomacy can prevail over confrontation, and how regional players will balance their interests amid the worsening situation.
We need to support the Law of the Sea Convention now more than ever. People are facing tough issues as countries make new claims on ocean areas. The South China Sea is especially important right now, and everyone is watching how the Philippines deals with these challenges to protect its rights.
