Alexander Sammon
Updated on: October 12, 2024 11:05 pm GMT
Voters in Newcastle have delivered a resounding message to Labor’s Lord Mayor Nuatali Nelmes by rejecting her leadership style and opting for a new direction. In a surprising turn of events, Nelmes conceded defeat ahead of the official election results, trailing by over 3,000 votes to independent candidate Dr. Ross Kerridge.
Change in Leadership
After a decade as lord mayor, Nelmes faced a challenging electoral landscape, with the election results not formally declared until later this month due to incoming postal votes. Dr. Kerridge, who will assume office on October 3, promised “fresh leadership that will actually listen to the community.” This election marks only the second time that a sitting Labor lord mayor has lost in Newcastle, the last instance being back in 1999.
Election analyst Ben Raue articulated what many supporters felt: “It’s pretty clear that she’s gotten a pretty bad rebuke.” The shocking swing away from Nelmes highlights the growing frustration among voters.
Shifts in Voting Patterns
Nelmes experienced a significant decline in support compared to previous elections. In 2017 and 2021, she garnered around 42% of the primary vote; however, this year’s election saw her support plummet to approximately 32%. This shift not only reflects a protest against her leadership but also a broader trend across the Labor party.
Key voting trends included:
- Labor’s primary vote decreased in all four electoral wards.
- Ward 3, where Nelmes ran, had a drop from 43.94% in 2021 to 38.96% this year.
- Many who supported Labor in the wards chose Kerridge in the lord mayoral ballot, a clear indication of the dissatisfaction with Nelmes.
One supporter admitted the outcome was surprising, stating, “We thought we’d get a bit of that, but not this much.” The stark difference in support for Labor in the wards versus the lord mayoral race indicates a strong desire among voters for new representation.
Understanding the Protest Vote
Civic election analyst John Sutton observed that the results signify broader dissatisfaction with Labor’s leadership rather than with the council as a whole. “There seems to be some evidence that Ross Kerridge is right; there is dissatisfaction with the leadership,” he noted. Sutton’s analysis reveals that while independent and Green party votes marginally increased, it was the Labor vote that took the largest hit.
Notably, the swing against Labor was most pronounced in Ward 3, where Nelmes campaigned actively. This raises questions about her ability to connect with her base and suggests that many voters chose to express their discontent through their ballots.
The Path Forward for Kerridge
Dr. Kerridge, who left the Labor party to run independently, faces the challenge of leading a more fragmented council. Current projections suggest a council composition of:
- Five Labor councillors
- Two Liberals
- Two independents from Our Newcastle
- Three Greens
This new makeup will require careful negotiation and collaboration, as Sutton explained, “There’s going to have to be a lot of negotiation, and that can be a tough thing.”
Voter Sentiment and Historical Context
Historical patterns in Newcastle politics show that voters can be reluctant to dismiss long-standing incumbents. Raue pointed out that defeating an established leader takes a unique combination of timing and a candidate who resonates with the populace. Kerridge’s ability to rally community support seems to have marked the turning point in this election.
Conversation among Labor branch members underscores the emerging anger against the party for losing historically strong voter bases. Notable trends from traditional Labor strongholds revealed:
- In Stockton, Nelmes received just four more votes than Kerridge: 561 to 557.
- Kerridge won Carrington with 490 votes compared to Nelmes’ 451.
- Nelmes did secure Beresfield with 746 votes against Kerridge’s 386.
Still, losses in former safe havens are worrisome for the party.
Reflections on the Future
Current and former council members agree that the results reflect a significant shift that will alter the landscape of Newcastle’s governance. Dr. Kerridge, acknowledging the community’s demand for change, will need to act quickly to harness the momentum that carried him to victory.
As the new lord mayor prepares to assume his responsibilities, the path is not just about leading but about listening to the community he now represents. With so many voters expressing a desire for change, Kerridge has the opportunity to set a new course for Newcastle.
Whether Nelmes will continue on the council as a Ward 3 councillor remains uncertain, but her legacy as a long-serving lord mayor has undeniably come to an end. The extent of the protest vote is a clear signal from the electorate that they are ready for something different.
Conclusion
The recent election in Newcastle has changed things a lot. Dr. Ross Kerridge ran as an independent candidate, and many voters liked his ideas. People were unhappy with how Nuatali Nelmes was leading, so they wanted someone new. This is an important time for the city. Now that Dr. Kerridge is in charge, everyone is watching to see how he will handle the community’s needs and work with the council. Voters clearly want leaders who listen and connect with them in local government.
