Daniel Matthews
Updated on: October 11, 2024 1:38 am GMT
As the Toronto Blue Jays navigate a challenging 2024 season, the urgency to secure a long-term contract for star player Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has never been greater. With the team currently at the bottom of the American League East and undergoing a significant roster transition, this offseason presents a critical opportunity for the organization to retain one of its most valuable assets.
Blue Jays’ Current Season Struggles
The current season has been a tumultuous one for the Blue Jays, culminating in a roster characterized by inexperience. Following a mid-season selloff that involved trading veterans like Danny Jansen and designating Cavan Biggio for assignment, the focus has shifted to younger players. The team is aiming to rebuild and prepare for a more promising 2025 season, but the lingering questions about their star players loom large as the offseason approaches.
Though the Blue Jays experienced success during their 2015 and 2016 playoff runs, that momentum has waned. The organization finds itself facing a crossroads, especially with core players such as Guerrero and Bo Bichette approaching free agency after the upcoming season. The challenge is compounded by the need for the team to decisively choose how to manage its talent moving forward.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: An Undeniable Asset
Since joining the Blue Jays in 2019, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has established himself as a fan favorite and a central figure on the team. He has become known not only for his engaging personality but also for his impressive performance on the field. Over six seasons, Guerrero has participated in 804 games, posting a career batting average of .287, with an on-base percentage of .362, and a slugging percentage of .500, resulting in an OPS of .862. With 158 home runs and 498 RBIs, Guerrero ranks prominently among the league’s offensive leaders.
Despite a rocky start to the season, Guerrero has shown resilience, demonstrating his potential as one of the league’s most powerful hitters. As of late August, he has recorded a notable .322 batting average with 28 home runs and an impressive 94 RBIs. His capabilities were especially highlighted during the 2021 season, where he finished as a runner-up in the American League MVP voting, showcasing an exceptional ability to drive in runs and maintain a high on-base percentage.
The Case for Extension
Amid these achievements, the Blue Jays face a critical decision regarding Guerrero’s future. The organization has been historically slow to embrace contract extensions for young stars, with José Berríos being the only player to secure a long-term deal since arriving via trade in 2021. The time is now for the front office to act if they wish to keep Guerrero in Toronto for the foreseeable future.
For fans, the consensus is clear: they want Guerrero to remain a Blue Jay. However, the discussions surrounding his contract extension are complicated by several factors, primarily his trajectory and consistency as a player. After showing remarkable power during the 2021 season, Guerrero’s performance dipped last year, culminating in an OPS of .788—the lowest since his rookie year. Nevertheless, his recent form suggests that he can deliver at an elite level.
Position and Market Context
Another factor influencing Guerrero’s potential extension is his position as a first baseman. Historically, first basemen have received smaller contracts compared to players in premier positions such as shortstop or center field. The highest salaries for first basemen currently feature players like Freddie Freeman, who earns $27 million per season, and Paul Goldschmidt, who makes $26 million. This context raises questions regarding Guerrero’s market value and what a potential extension could look like.
As the offseason approaches, another point of interest is how free-agent market trends may impact Guerrero’s negotiations. The upcoming free agency of Pete Alonso, a fellow power-hitting first baseman, could set the market rate for players in this category, providing a benchmark for negotiations between Guerrero and the Blue Jays.
Final Considerations for the Blue Jays
For the Blue Jays, a failure to extend Guerrero before he potentially hits the open market in 2025 could lead to significant consequences. The longer the front office waits to secure an agreement, the more likely they risk losing him to bigger-market teams, which may be willing to offer lucrative contracts.
While there are many stakeholders in the conversation about Guerrero’s future, both parties have expressed a desire to reach a deal that keeps him in Toronto. Guerrero has consistently indicated his intent to remain with the Blue Jays, but action from the front office is needed to make that a reality.
If the Blue Jays don’t take action this offseason, Guerrero might become a target for other teams. This could put the Blue Jays in a tough spot. The people in charge need to focus on this issue or they might lose one of their best players.
