Amber Phillips
As tensions simmer between Armenia and Azerbaijan, a concerning arms race is unfolding in Central Asia fueled by military sales from nations like India and Pakistan. This influx of weaponry threatens to destabilize the already fragile peace in the region, with analysts warning of heightened risks of conflict if territorial disputes remain unresolved.
Growing Military Relations
Russia’s long-standing influence in the South Caucasus is being challenged as both Armenia and Azerbaijan procure significant military support from outside sources. Recent defense contracts have increased the capabilities of both nations, shifting the military balance.
- India and Pakistan are actively selling arms to Armenia and Azerbaijan, respectively.
- These military enhancements come amid ongoing skirmishes and disputes over territory.
- Tinatin Japaridze, an analyst at the Eurasia Group, cautions that any peace agreements lacking clear resolutions on border issues could lead to renewed military actions from Azerbaijan.
Despite efforts for dialogue, Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev remains focused on controlling the Zangezur corridor, a critical route that would grant access to the Nakhchivan exclave, a vital interest for Baku.
The Implications for Peace
The ongoing arms race poses significant risks to the peace process. While a limited peace agreement between Yerevan and Baku remains possible, the unresolved territorial and political conflicts suggest a persistent threat of unilateral military actions by Azerbaijan.
Analysts argue that diplomatic efforts could falter if military tensions escalate. As Japaridze noted, clarity on border issues is essential. “Without it, peace efforts may do little to deter Azerbaijan from aggressive military maneuvers,” she said.
Humanitarian Support Amidst Conflict
In the backdrop of military escalations, humanitarian agencies continue to provide vital support to those affected by the ongoing turmoil. The World Food Programme (WFP) is actively addressing the needs of refugees in Armenia.
In September 2024, the WFP reported:
- 11,357 people received assistance, reflecting the ongoing humanitarian crisis.
- The agency provided USD 770,000 in cash-based transfers, including food-restricted bank cards for cash transfers to refugees.
- Each refugee received USD 36 to help cover basic food needs for one month.
Community Support Initiatives
Beyond immediate food assistance, the WFP also focuses on psychosocial support for displaced families. In cooperation with local organizations, the WFP offers various services aimed at reducing stress and trauma experienced due to displacement, including:
- Establishing child-friendly spaces
- Providing recreational activities
- Offering psychological first aid and self-help sessions
Another commendable initiative is the “Milk to Schools” program, launched in collaboration with the Eurasian Development Bank and a local milk-producing company. This initiative seeks to improve children’s nutrition and well-being by ensuring that:
- 1,350 schoolchildren in nine schools receive a daily glass of milk starting this month.
Sustainability and Education
The WFP’s efforts also include a focus on sustainable solutions in education. In September, the agency supported enhancements to the National School Feeding Programme by providing solar energy solutions to schools. Key details include:
- Solar stations installed in 15 schools across various provinces.
- The solar stations are expected to save schools about USD 85,000 annually in electricity costs and decrease greenhouse gas emissions by 230 tons per year.
- These initiatives can enable schools to allocate funds toward expanding food programs and improving facilities for students with disabilities.
Conclusion
As military tensions rise in Central Asia due to external arms sales, the humanitarian situation in Armenia remains critical. The resilience of communities, supported by organizations like the WFP, faces challenges as they navigate the complexities of conflict and displacement. The international community must prioritize diplomatic solutions to diffuse tensions and protect vulnerable populations. Only a balanced approach addressing both military and humanitarian concerns can pave the way for lasting peace in the region
