Ariana Longson
Updated on: October 13, 2024 7:53 pm GMT
The spotlight will shine brightly on Dalton Kincaid as the Buffalo Bills prepare to face the Jacksonville Jaguars on Monday night. Following a sluggish start to the 2024 NFL season, Kincaid is poised for a breakout game that could flip the narrative surrounding his role on the team.
With the Bills looking to build on their early season success, the tight end’s performance may hold the key to unlocking a more potent offense. Analysts have noted that despite predictions of over 100 targets for Kincaid this season, he is currently averaging a mere three targets per game. However, with the right matchups and schemes, this could change swiftly.
Kincaid’s Slow Start Sparks Questions
Entering the season, many experts saw Kincaid as a potential frontrunner for the most targets on the Bills roster. Yet, two games into the season, he has only pulled in five catches for 44 yards, with no touchdowns to his name. At this pace, Kincaid would need about 31 more games to hit that target mark, which isn’t possible in a 17-game schedule.
But all hope is not lost. Two games is a small sample size,” remarked a sports analyst. Kincaid’s evolution on the field could see a sharp uptick based on various factors, including how the opposing defenses approach him.
Defensive Attention and Opportunities
Kincaid has already attracted significant attention from opposing defenses. In Week 1, he found himself shadowed by multiple defensive backs, which only highlights his importance in the Bills’ offensive strategy.
- Key Point: Kincaid often drew attention from three, sometimes four, defenders during his first game against the Arizona Cardinals.
- Trend: Teams are likely to adjust their focus on Kincaid as the Bills’ run game improves, potentially opening up space for passing opportunities.
As teams focus more on stopping the run, which has been a growing strength for the Bills, it could create mismatches that Kincaid can exploit. This dynamic could become particularly relevant against a Jaguars defense that is missing key personnel.
Jaguars’ Defense Lacks Key Players
The Jaguars will enter the game with some vulnerabilities in their secondary due to injuries. Most notably, star cornerback Tyson Campbell will not play, which shifts the balance of coverage significantly.
Impactful Matchups to Consider
Buffalo’s coaching staff may look to capitalize on these weaknesses, particularly through these avenues:
- Weak Nickel Coverage: Expect the Bills to place Curtis Samuel or Khalil Shakir against Jaguars nickel defender Jarrian Jones, who has struggled against agile receivers this season.
- Linebacker Matchups: Kincaid could also find favorable matchups against Jaguar linebackers in pass coverage. Although Devin Lloyd has performed decently, his ability to defend against tight ends remains to be seen.
Kincaid may be key to dissecting these matchups. The talent and skill he showcased in his rookie year suggest that he can navigate through lesser coverage effectively.
Delving into Kincaid’s Numbers
Despite his slow start, statistics hint at Kincaid’s potential. His ability to gain yards after contact stands out.
- Statistical Breakdown:
– 46 total yards after contact
– Averaging 9.2 yards gained after contact per reception
These statistics suggest that when Kincaid does touch the ball, he makes it count. This capability of creating extra yardage is critical in a league where every inch matters.
A Future Breakout Game?
Looking ahead, Kincaid’s situation could easily shift in the coming weeks for several reasons:
- Quarterback Trust: Bills quarterback Josh Allen is known for spreading the ball effectively to players who deserve more attention. If Kincaid shows up in crucial moments, expectations for him could rise. Last season, Allen demonstrated a knack for finding tight ends when needed.
- Predictions for Monday Night: The betting market has set Kincaid’s receiving yards line at an accessible 38.5, offering keen insight into expectations for his upcoming performance. Analysts predict around eight targets, six receptions, and potentially over 65 yards.
While it may be too early to declare Kincaid’s season is in jeopardy, the upcoming game against the Jaguars presents a valuable opportunity for him to change the narrative.
Conclusion: A Look Ahead
As the Bills gear up for their matchup against the Jaguars, many will be watching to see if Kincaid can finally deliver the performance fans and analysts have anticipated. Remember, the tight end position often evolves throughout the season, and a single breakout game can set the tone for an impressive run.
Monday night could be a big chance for Kincaid to show what he can do. The Bills want to prove they are serious contenders in the AFC East. Fans and fantasy managers will be watching closely, hoping Kincaid has an exciting game that reminds everyone why he was so well-liked last year.
