Amber Phillips
Updated on: October 10, 2024 11:46 pm GMT
As tensions between China and Taiwan continue to simmer, the possibility of a Chinese blockade around Taiwan has gained increasing attention. The recent launch of *Zero Day*, a Taiwanese television show that highlights the threats posed by such a blockade and potential invasion, illustrates a shift in the narrative surrounding Taiwan’s defense strategy. This fresh perspective raises important questions about the feasibility and implications of a blockade amidst ongoing geopolitical uncertainties.
Shift in Military Strategy Discussion
The discussions surrounding a possible military engagement from China, particularly in relation to Taiwan, have evolved over recent years. Historically, scenarios characterized by a direct seaborne assault, akin to the D-Day invasion of Normandy during World War II, dominated strategic considerations. Advocates suggested that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) could establish a beachhead in Taiwan, using a formidable naval force to transport troops across the Taiwan Strait.
However, since 2022, this notion has significantly weakened. Analysts note that military developments within the PLA Navy, such as the slow progress of converting ferries into amphibious vessels, indicate that a full-scale seaborne invasion is not currently viable. With reports suggesting that the PLA Navy is only capable of constructing landing crafts at the rate of one per year, the practicality of this invasion strategy appears increasingly improbable.
Emergence of the Blockade Idea
In light of these challenges, the attention has now pivoted to the concept of a blockade. The defeat of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, which had been expected to facilitate assaults on strategic ports such as Odesa, serves as a cautionary example. It demonstrates that a direct invasion is likely to fail unless the targeted nation—like Taiwan—is significantly weakened ahead of time.
As seen in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, air power alone may not be sufficient to dismantle a nation’s defenses. Consequently, analysts are focusing on the rarely employed strategy of a blockade as a means to exert pressure on Taiwan without directly committing to a full military invasion.
The Historic Challenges of Blockades
Despite a resurgence of interest in blockade strategies, history casts doubt on their efficacy. Historically, no blockade has ever succeeded in compelling a nation to surrender. In fact, blockades often serve primarily as supportive actions rather than standalone military solutions. Russia’s failure to effectively blockade Ukraine’s wheat exports further underscores the inherent limitations of this tactic.
The term ”blockade” itself can be ambiguous, leading to various interpretations. A “close blockade” would involve a naval fleet positioned near enemy ports to intercept military-grade shipments. Nevertheless, this approach is increasingly impractical, given advancements in aerial and missile technology. The “far blockade,” which would require a significantly larger fleet to operate outside enemy territory, similarly appears irrelevant in the contemporary military landscape.
Legal Implications and Military Morality
Historically, unrestricted submarine warfare has been one of the more serious forms of blockade employed. This controversial tactic involves the sinking of both enemy and neutral vessels within a designated exclusion zone without warning. Such actions are considered war crimes under international law, complicating the moral landscape for any nation considering a blockade.
The prospect of a blockade raises significant legal and ethical questions. If China were to undertake such an operation, the potential for international outrage and repercussions could escalate. The possibility of civilian casualties and disregard for humanitarian laws might ultimately lead to legal challenges in international courts.
Potential Responses from Taiwan
Should the threat of a blockade materialize, Taiwan may have the capacity to prepare a robust response. The island nation could stockpile essential resources, aligning its supplies to endure a limited blockade for several months. Through rationing measures, Taiwan could potentially mitigate the blockade’s effects, rendering it a mere inconvenience rather than a crippling defeat.
This preparatory capability emphasizes Taiwan’s resilience and its strategic focus on self-defense. Moreover, it signals to the international community that the island nation is not merely a passive participant but an active player in its defense against aggression.
International Implications
The question of a blockade is not only critical for Taiwan but also for regional and international stability. A Chinese blockade would likely provoke reactions from the United States and its allies, who have repeatedly expressed their commitment to Taiwan’s security. The international community’s response could further complicate the situation, potentially leading to a broader military conflict.
In recent years, strategic partnerships in the Asia-Pacific region have strengthened in response to perceived threats from China. These alliances may factor heavily into any calculations regarding the feasibility and consequences of a blockade.
Concluding Thoughts
Talking about a blockade as a way to pressure Taiwan shows changes in military plans, but it also brings up important questions about how well this idea might work. Taiwan is getting ready for different situations, and a blockade could cause big problems for other countries, making it less likely to succeed. As both sides deal with these tricky political issues, it’s really important to keep talking and think carefully about military plans to help maintain peace and stability in the area.
