The Surprising Stat on Port’s Side Despite Cats Drubbing

Geelong’s emphatic 84-point victory over Port Adelaide in the qualifying final has sent shockwaves through the AFL community. However, amidst the bruising defeat for Port, there’s an unexpected silver lining that suggests they could still mount a serious challenge in the upcoming semi-final against Hawthorn.

Historical Context: The Power’s Path Ahead

Historically, when teams suffer a loss by 50 points or more in a qualifying final, they often bounce back in their semi-final matches. In fact, since the current finals system was introduced in 2000, 11 teams have faced a similar situation, with all of them managing to win their subsequent semi-final.

Despite Port’s sixth defeat in their last eight finals, analysts are pointing towards this historical trend as a potential source of optimism for the Power. Head coach Ken Hinkley’s under-pressure squad will need to harness this statistic to put up a formidable fight against a resurgent Hawthorn side, which has been performing impressively in the finals.

The Cats’ Quest for Glory

On the flip side, Geelong’s powerful performance reaffirms their status as genuine premiership contenders. They are now on course for a fifth premiership since 2007, bolstered by the fact that every team to have won a qualifying final by 50 or more points since 2000 has reached the Grand Final, with a substantial eight of them claiming the ultimate prize.

This season, Geelong fans can rightly feel confident. Historical patterns indicate that their squad, with its wealth of experience and tactical nous, is well-positioned to contend seriously for the premiership. With just two more victories needed to reach the Grand Final, the Cats have their eyes firmly set on adding another trophy to their cabinets.

Port’s Unwanted History

While the Power may find solace in previous rebounds, the specter of unwanted history looms large. Following last year’s unprecedented straight-sets exit from the finals, Port now faces the possibility of doing so again. If they lose against the Hawks in the semi-finals, they will join the Melbourne Demons in the harsh record of back-to-back straight-sets exits—a fate that speaks volumes about a team struggling to convert their regular-season promise into playoff success.

Since the pre-finals bye was introduced in 2016, the trend of top-four teams exiting the finals in straight sets has escalated. Seven teams have succumbed in this way in the past eight seasons, starkly contrasting with the five instances over the previous 16 seasons. Port will need not only to break this trend but also to tap into the momentum that comes from their historical precedent of bouncing back.

Conclusion

As the semi-final against Hawthorn approaches, both Port Adelaide and Geelong find themselves at critical junctures in their respective campaigns. For Port, the challenge will be to internalize the history of resilience and deliver a performance worthy of their regular-season stature. For Geelong, maintaining the momentum and continuing to leverage their historical performance could be the key to sealing another Grand Final appearance.

To learn more about how teams have done in the finals in the past, you can check out some resources about AFL history. As the finals get more exciting, both teams will really want to show what they can do and maybe change the stories about their playoff experiences.